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Weather, Risk, and the Unpredictable Nature of Farming

Writer: Hallie ShoffnerHallie Shoffner

Farming has always been a gamble. Farmers put their livelihoods on the line every season, battling forces beyond their control. We can prepare, plan, and manage as best we can, but at the end of the day, we are at the mercy of the weather. And in recent years, that gamble has become even riskier.


The contents of grain silos which burst from flood damage are shown in Fremont County Iowa, U.S., March 29, 2019. Photo taken March 29, 2019. REUTERS/Tom Polansek
The contents of grain silos which burst from flood damage are shown in Fremont County Iowa, U.S., March 29, 2019. Photo taken March 29, 2019. REUTERS/Tom Polansek

Extreme Weather is Becoming the New Normal


Arkansas farmers are no strangers to unpredictable weather, but the volatility we’ve seen in recent years is unlike anything past generations faced. Floods, droughts, early freezes, and severe storms have become more frequent and more intense. In some years, heavy rains prevent crops from ever making it into the ground. In others, scorching droughts destroy yields before harvest.


When farmers suffer weather-related losses, it’s not just a bad year—it can mean financial ruin. Family farms operate on razor-thin margins, so one disaster can set a farm back for years, if not force it out of business entirely.




soybean field with half of the field dead from the affects of a flood
The effects of flood damage in a soybean field

Crop Insurance: A Flawed Safety Net


Many assume that crop insurance protects farmers from these disasters, but the reality is far more complicated. Crop insurance is expensive, and payouts rarely cover the full cost of a lost crop. Policies are based on average yields, meaning that even in a total loss year, farmers often don’t recoup enough to cover their input costs.


Additionally, crop insurance doesn’t help when weather events lower yields across an entire region, leading to price collapses. If a drought reduces overall production, but not enough to trigger a full insurance payout, farmers still take a financial hit. Worse yet, many small and mid-sized farms are ineligible for the most beneficial insurance programs, which tend to favor large-scale operations.


Disaster Relief is Too Little, Too Late


When catastrophic weather events strike, the federal government often steps in with disaster relief funding. But these programs are slow, overly complicated, and often fail to provide real recovery. Farmers can wait months—sometimes over a year—before receiving aid. And when they do, the funds rarely make up for the true cost of the damage.


Meanwhile, state-level support for farmers facing disaster is virtually nonexistent. Arkansas has no dedicated emergency relief fund for farmers, leaving many to fend for themselves when disaster strikes. Unlike other industries that receive immediate relief after a crisis, farmers are expected to absorb the losses and keep going.


Preparing for an Uncertain Future


As extreme weather becomes more common, farmers need real solutions. Here’s what needs to happen:


  • Strengthen crop insurance so that it provides real protection for family farms, not just large-scale corporate operations.

  • Establish a state-level disaster relief program to provide immediate assistance when federal aid falls short.

  • Invest in resilient farming practices that help mitigate the impact of extreme weather, such as water conservation programs, improved drainage infrastructure, and soil health initiatives.

  • Support diversified agriculture so that farmers aren’t entirely reliant on one or two crops that can be wiped out by a single disaster.


Farming is always going to carry risk, but that risk shouldn’t mean financial devastation. If we want to keep family farms alive in Arkansas, we need policies that acknowledge the realities of extreme weather and give farmers the tools they need to withstand it. The future of our food system depends on it.


 
 
 

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